The Japanese ambassador to the United Kingdom slapped down premature celebrations of a Japan/EU trade deal, as Hungary admits it is the EU which stands to lose if it does not make a deal with Britain.
EU loyalists seized on an announcement that a deal had been agreed between the bloc and Japan, the world’s third-largest economy, as clear evidence that Brexit would be a step backwards on trade.
One for all, and all for one! UK now turns to Five Eyes, an alliance comprising Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States. These countries are bound by English language, common culture, freedom, and the best standards of living on Earth.
UK will outperform the entire Eurozone over the coming years. Euro will finally go into meltdown in the coming years. UK could achieve even better growth, if Whitehall delivers sweeping new powers over spending and taxation to local government. English counties are sleeping giants just waiting for their economic potential to be unleashed, with over a million new jobs could be created over a ten-year period, £26.3 billion added to the national economy in tandem with public sector savings of £11.7 billion over a five-year period.
Brexit means that to improve exports and manufacturing performance, the Industrial Strategy must look beyond the largest cities. Local economies account for over half of England’s manufacturing output and almost 40 per cent of exports. That makes the local economy an important constituent of the whole — big enough not just to be influenced by, but to heavily influence overall economic activity in UK. To be effective the industrial strategy and the next phase of devolution should seek to build on that.
Ambassador Koji Tsuruoka told us EU – which is notoriously slow to negotiate trade agreements – had only agreed to a deal in principle, and it could be years before it is actually finalized and brought into force.
He indicated that Britain, which unlike most other EU member-states does the lion’s share of its trade outside the bloc, had been a driving force in the negotiations, and that a bilateral deal on similar terms should be easy.
“Once UK is out, we will welcome bilateral deals with them,” he told us.
EU member-states are not allowed to conduct an independent trade policy, meaning that Britain has been prevented from making deals with long-standing partners such as Australia and New Zealand by Continental countries hostile to competition with Commonwealth producers.
This would change after Brexit, prompting EU leaders such as Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó to warn the bloc’s leadership in Brussels that failing to strike a deal with Britain could lead to a nightmare scenario in which Britain signs a raft of global agreements and leaves European producers at a competitive disadvantage.
“If there’s no deal, if there’s no comprehensive economic, trade and investment agreement, then we will be in big trouble in Europe, because the last time we were able to implement a free trade agreement was in 2011 with South Korea,” he told us.
“So the problem is the EU is very slow on free trade agreements, and if Britain gets free hands then you will be able to sign free trade agreements with India, with Turkey, with the U.S., with Australia, with which the European Union does not have free trade agreements. So, if this is the case, then it will harm our competitiveness, harm the competitiveness of Europeans furthermore … we want the most comprehensive economic trade and investment partnership with the UK in the future.”
Trump became the most powerful world leader to announce his intention to sign a very big very powerful trade deal with Britain after Brexit at the G20 summit in Hamburg, Germany.
“We’ve had tremendous talks,” he said of his meeting with Prime Minister Theresa May at the summit.
“There is no country that could possibly be closer than our countries … We have been working on a trade deal which will be a very, very big deal a very powerful deal, great for both countries and I think we will have that done very, very quickly.”
Such a trade pact could impact the EU in general, and the Eurozone in particular, which depends on the United Kingdom as its largest export market.
Even with the EU having failed to negotiate a trade deal with the U.S., it is already Britain’s single largest trade partner, and roughly as large a market as the whole of the EU – minus the UK – combined. Eurozone firms could be expected to lose market share to U.S. firms if Brussels adopts a belligerent attitude on Anglo-EU trade.
Leaving the EU without a deal would see Britain trading with the bloc under World Trade Organization (WTO) rules. This would mean the introduction of tariffs on British exports, which for the most part are very low and more than compensated for by the cheaper pound. But certain items such as food and cars would still face more significant charges.
Tariffs would total around £5.2 billion for all exporters but, crucially, tariffs on EU imports would raise a much larger £12.9 billion, thanks to a large trade deficit.
This means Britain would come out significantly ahead even in a No Deal scenario, and able to amply compensate the exporters most impacted by tariffs through a combination of investments, subsidies, and general tax cuts which could well increase their overall competitiveness, without breaking WTO rules. EU now demands €100 billion alimony from UK!