Dropbox is seeking investment bankers for an initial public offering. The IPO will be a key test of Dropbox’s worth after it was valued at almost $10 billion in a private fundraising round in 2014.
Why Some Companies Go Public:
- Raise equity capital – in some cases, large amounts or in sectors where private financing isn’t as prevalent.
- Have a “public” acquisition currency – while private-to-private transactions occur, agreeing on value (as there is no publicly traded price for either company) can be challenging.
- “Monetize” shareholders – including employees and investors/backers.
- “Branding” the company – in addition to getting visibility in the media (i.e., CEO appears on CNBC, etc.), some companies’ customers and vendors can be more comfortable dealing with public companies, given the transparency of information.
Why Some Companies Stay Private:
- Have sufficient access to capital;
- Prefer no/limited disclosure (i.e., SEC filings);
- Don’t want the quarterly reporting “treadmill;”
- Like to “control their own destiny” – with increased public shareholder activism in recent years, companies like Dell prefer being private.
Several big U.S. technology companies such as Uber and Airbnb have resisted going public in recent months, concerned that stock market investors, who focus more on profitability than do private investors, would assign lower valuations to them.
Snap, owner of the popular messaging app Snapchat, was forced to lower its IPO valuation expectations earlier this year amid investor concern over its unproven business model. Its shares have since lingered just above the IPO price, with investors troubled by widening losses and missed analyst estimates. It has a market capitalization of $21 billion.
Still, for many private companies, there is increasing pressure to go pubic as investors look to cash out.
Proceeds from technology IPOs slumped to $6.7 billion in2015 from $34 billion in 2014, and shrunk further to $2.9 billion in 2016, according to Thomson Reuters data.
Dropbox’s main competitor, Box Inc, was valued at roughly $1.67 billion in its IPO in 2015, less than the $2.4 billion it had been valued at in previous private fundraising rounds.
San Francisco-based Dropbox, which was founded in 2007 by Massachusetts Institute of Technology graduates Drew Houston and Arash Ferdowsi, counts Sequoia Capital, T. Rowe Price and Greylock Partners as investors.
So, what happens if a company can remain private, but achieve many of the benefits of going public?
Some successful companies were able to stay private longer because of two main catalysts. The first involved changes from the 2012 JOBS Act, which allows companies to have 2,000 shareholders (vs. the previous 500 shareholders) before having to start filing with the SEC. And second, more investment dollars were available in the private venture market.
More than $2.3 trillion of new money has been raised by private equity firms (from buyout to venture capital to growth to mezzanine funds) in the last four years, and more than half a trillion in each of these years. The other thing to note about this new money raised is that it is unlevered equity – much of which, including most buyout and growth funds, can be levered to make investments. That is a lot of potential buying power.
While not all of this money is focused on investing in private companies, more private equity firms in recent years have been actively investing in private companies across sectors, such as Ajax Health, Chobani, Cloudreach, SoFi, Tom’s, and Uber. Additionally, private companies have received financing to pursue strategic activities such as SilverLake increasing its investment in Dell to facilitate its recent acquisition of EMC. Previously, these private companies would likely have needed to go public to solve their financial or strategic needs.
This isn’t to say that these private companies will never go public, as their private equity backers will need to monetize at some point. However, with these alternative financing solutions, it may provide private companies with flexibility in the near-term, and if they are able and want to stay private.
In addition to an increase in investment dollars going into private companies, with the performance of the equity market since last year’s U.S. election, the strength of strategic M&A buyers has improved, and some have targeted companies preparing for an IPO. A recent example is Cisco’s January acquisition of AppDynamics the day before it was to price its IPO – at almost two times the value it was going public.
While accessing the vast pool of private capital is one path companies have pursued instead of going public, another path being rumored by prominent unicorn Spotify is a direct listing. In the last couple of months, several articles have noted the possibility that Spotify may avoid an IPO, and instead do a direct listing on an exchange. According to some of these articles, the rationale is that Spotify doesn’t need the money and instead wants to provide a mechanism for its shareholders to monetize.
As it is only rumored at this stage, it is unclear if the company’s reasons to go this route are to avoid the time and expenses of an IPO process (i.e., mostly, investment bank, lawyer, and accountant fees); and/or if it wants to do something unique like when Google did a Dutch auction for its IPO with the objective to optimize the IPO price. As when Google announced its intent to do a non-traditional IPO, Spotify’s potential path has sparked considerable interest.
Albert Wenger of Union Square Ventures, a prominent venture capitalist, tweeted when the Spotify articles first appeared, “Great to see, we are long overdue for some innovation in the IPO process.” However, a direct listing isn’t really a change in the IPO process (as there is no offering), but a listing of the company’s shares on an exchange. One of the biggest distinctions of a direct listing is normally all of a company’s shares are freely tradeable on day one, versus in an IPO where generally only the shares being offered – usually 10% to 20% of the company’s shares – are trading (with the rest often subject to a lock-up).
This lock-up is designed to create an orderly market for the shares as the stock “seasons.” The challenge of an IPO lock-up, however, is if there is tremendous demand for the IPO shares being offered, the stock can “pop” and trade up significantly. However, those that are locked-up are unable to sell until the lock-up is released (usually 180 days after the IPO pricing). In a direct listing, all shares, in theory, could be available for sale immediately, which can create a disorderly market early on as existing shareholders may sell individually (vs. coordinated as part of an Initial Public Offering). This can make the initial market for shares quite challenging as investors, who may want to buy a company’s shares, may be cautious in the initial stages, given this possible volatility.
Again, according to press reports, Spotify has supposedly engaged Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Allen & Co. to presumably develop a strategy to create an orderly market for the shares. Hopefully, if Spotify goes down this path, it won’t have some of the regrets that some at Google had about its unique process. As Eric Schmidt, CEO of Google at the time of its IPO, explained in a 2010 article, “To this day I can’t fully explain why our stock price opened so high—causing the pop we had tried to avoid. A lot of complicated factors played a role.”
Dropbox started as a free service for consumers to share and store photos, music and other large files. That business became commoditized though, as Alphabet Inc’s Google, Microsoft Corp, and Amazon Istarted offering storage for free.
Dropbox has since pivoted to focus on winning business clients, and Houston, the company’s CEO, has said that Dropbox is on track to generate more than $1 billion in revenue this year.
The company has expanded its Dropbox Business that requires companies to pay a fee based on the number of employees who use it. The service in January began offering Smart Sync, which allows users to see and access all of their files, whether stored in the cloud or on a local hard drive, from their desktop.
What Could Revive Interest in the IPO Market (Again)?
A few things:
- The private financing market cycles: As with all financing markets, this access to private capital will also likely cycle over time. When public equity markets get choppier, this tends to have an impact on the liquidity of the private financing market. That having been said, with large private equity firms such as Apollo, Blackstone, Carlyle and KKR going public themselves, their shareholders are looking for continued growth in AUM (assets under management) and corresponding fees to drive these stocks. As a result, these large private equity firms continue to raise new funds, and find creative ways to deploy capital longer-term. In addition, publicly listed asset managers that have also invested in private companies, such as Alliance-Bernstein, Blackrock, Franklin, Janus and T Rowe Price, are also motivated to grow their AUM and fees. They will likely continue to invest more money in private companies.
- Alternative markets emerge: A few alternative markets have received investment and interest in recent years. Most notably is probably the Long Term Stock Exchange (LTSE), started by Eric Ries, and backers including Marc Andreessen, Amy Butte (former CFO of the NYSE), and other Silicon Valley firms. What is needed is a new kind of stock exchange, designed to trade in the stocks of companies organized to sustain long-term thinking. According to press reports, the LTSE is in discussions with the SEC to receive the appropriate regulatory approvals.
- The traditional IPO process evolves: While there have been significant technological changes in the trading of equities in the last 20-plus years, there have been limited changes in the IPO process. While Wall Street obviously has the expertise and capabilities to evolve, some of these changes need regulatory evolution as well.While there are many possibilities, one example, which is a big frustration to private companies and their backers, is the inefficiency of the SEC amendment filing process (S-1) during the IPO roadshow. In the case where a company has a significant amount of demand for its IPO offering (i.e., multiple times the offering size), the company may want to raise the IPO marketing range (greater than say 20%). If it does so, it needs to formally re-file publicly with the SEC, usually a day or two before pricing (so the SEC can do its review of the amendment, as well as investors). The challenge is, as this filing is public, in addition to the media reporting this positive news, investors realize the offering is well over-subscribed and likely to “pop,” meaning that the share price on the first day rises sharply above the IPO offer price. For the already over-subscribed IPO, this filing action well before pricing often causes investor interest and demand to increase even further, exacerbating the problem of excess demand and potentially “increasing the pop” in the after-market. As an alternative, if there could be a more efficient process with the SEC to file and review such amendments, this could give Wall Street more flexibility to optimally price these IPOs.
While an IPO is still the preferred path for many large companies, as well as others that have unique financing needs, in the coming years it will be interesting to see the trends of the number of companies going public and the volume of capital they are able to raise. With alternative paths evolving and taking away potential interest for companies to do IPOs, maybe the IPO process may evolve too – which would be a good thing.